Plastic pollution can be cut without global consensus, finds research
The Environmental Investigation Agency UK (EIA) indicates alternative ways to lower plastics pollution.
The EIA report finds that as more countries are added to a progressive coalition, the impact on production levels, waste generation and climate emissions grows.
The EIA claims the scenarios it commissioned Eunomia Research & Consulting Ltd to model show that even with less-than-universal participation, limited to only those that have self-described as ‘high ambition’, significant benefits are possible.
The Bending the Curve report examines different scenarios of how production, consumption, waste generation and greenhouse gas emissions respond under varying levels of international participation and coordination.
It used emerging groups of countries within treaty negotiations to guide the scenarios for global plastics production:
- Coalition of high-ambition countries - falling 16-18% below business‑as‑usual
- Coalition of high-ambition countries plus China -reduced by up to 38%, with more substantial reductions in waste and emissions
- Coalition of high-ambition countries plus China plus ‘middle’ countries (e.g. Brazil, India, South Africa) - drops ~45% to ~420MTt by 2040, with mismanaged plastic waste declining by more than half and cumulative emissions reducing more than 10Gt of CO₂
The EIA says that at current trends, global plastic output will reach approximately 766Mt by 2040 – equivalent to producing more than 75 trillion standard plastic bottles annually or enough to make more than 100 smartphones for every person on the planet each year.
EIA Ocean Campaign Leader Christina Dixon says, 'However, our research clearly shows that the planet does not need to die on the hill of consensus. Coalitions of countries can instead band together and bend the curve to dramatically impact plastic pollution and climate emissions, even without everyone on board.
'Now it’s time to act on that finding as countries seek pathways ahead to break the deadlock.'
