Global stockpiling of critical minerals is likely to increase supply chain risk, says report
The study call for global coordination to manage competition for critical minerals.
Polymetallic ore containing copper, lead, zinc, nickel and cobalt
© BJP7images/ShutterstockLondon School of Economics study Collective security in a fragmented world, by Hugh Miller and Pau Morandi warns that ‘without coordination, stockpiling programmes will intensify competition for minerals, heighten price volatility and induce the shocks these strategies are designed to mitigate.’
The report states, ‘The build-out phase of the energy transition requires a sharp, front-loaded increase in mineral-intensive infrastructure, generating demand that substantially exceeds what current supply chains were designed to accommodate.
‘Aggregate stockpile demand from seven economies alone could represent up to 34% of global annual cobalt supply and over 10% of global lithium, graphite and copper supply, risking the simultaneous scramble that would amplify precisely the price volatility stockpiling is designed to hedge against.’
The rapid expansion of data centres, artificial intelligence and next-generation semiconductor technologies are also intensifying demand for high-purity metals and rare-earth elements.
New defence spending commitments across NATO member states are reportedly putting additional pressure on markets for specialised alloys, magnet materials and battery chemicals. The study also points out that with the US-China rare-earth truce expiring in November 2026, the window to coordinate before the next supply shock is closing.
The authors believe that coordination offers three advantages: staggered build-up schedules that can reduce simultaneous demand shocks; pre-agreed release conditions to improve market predictability; and an integrated framework connecting short-term stockpiling to longer-term supply diversification.
They also say that any successful mechanism would need to combine enforcement capacity, technical expertise, transparency and strong governance.
The International Energy Agency, with its existing oil reserve programme and growing critical minerals work, emerges in the report as the most fit-for-purpose institution to lead international coordination of critical mineral stockpiling.
The study also sets out a broader institutional assessment, exploring the arrangements and considerations that any effective regime would need to address.
