Global coal demand plateaus, according to the IEA

The International Energy Agency says global coal demand may decline slightly by 2030.

The agency's 2025 annual market report says there is increasing competition from other power sources, though developments in China’s electricity sector will remain key for coal’s prospects.

Coal 2025 finds that global coal demand was on course to rise by 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8.85bln tonnes.

The IEA finds consumption patterns to have diverged from recent trends in several major markets.

In India, an early and intense monsoon season resulted in a decline in annual coal use for only the third time in five decades. In the United States, higher natural gas prices and policy measures that slowed coal plant retirements lifted coal consumption, which had been on a downward trajectory for the previous 15 years.

Meanwhile, after two years of double-digit declines, coal demand in the EU shrank only modestly. At the same time, in China, coal use remained broadly unchanged from its 2024 level.

By 2030, however, the IEA thinks global coal demand will reduce, returning to the same level as in 2023.

This is largely driven by shifts in the power sector, which is two-thirds of total coal consumption today. With renewable capacity surging, nuclear expanding steadily, and a huge wave of liquefied natural gas coming to market, coal-fired power generation is forecast to decline from 2026 onwards.

Coal demand from industry is expected to remain more resilient.

China currently accounts for more than half of global coal use. Its demand is expected to fall slightly by the end of the decade as the country continues to rapidly deploy renewable energy capacity. Its government is aiming for domestic coal consumption to peak before 2030.