Climate-related subsidence poses risk to many UK homes
The British Geological Survey (BGS) says 11% of UK properties are at risk of clay shrink-swell by 2070.
The BGS says shrink–swell ground movement, typically reported as subsidence, is one of the most damaging geohazards in the UK today.
Many soils contain clay minerals that absorb water and swell when they get wet, then lose water and shrink as they dry out. This natural hazard presents a significant and growing economic cost.
In 2025, the UK experienced the warmest spring on record and the driest in more than 50 years. As a result, subsidence-related insurance claims in the UK totalled £153mln in the first six months of 2025 according to ABI.
The BGS says that with climate change projections indicating that hotter, drier conditions are likely to become increasingly frequent over the coming century, the number of properties susceptible to subsidence-related shrink-swell is on the rise.
New maps from the BHS form part of the GeoClimate Shrink-Swell dataset, which combines 1:50,000-scale geological maps of Great Britain with the highest-resolution climate change data from the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. This data is derived from and builds upon the Met Office’s UKCP18 climate projections.
The new BGS maps provide outputs for low, medium and high emission scenarios, with additional projected time intervals between the present day and 2070.
The dataset forecasts that, by 2070:
- Over 4.2 million properties could be affected under the high-emissions scenario RCP 8.5, which is the most pessimistic scenario.
- Around 500 000 properties could be affected under the low-emissions scenario RCP 2.6, which is the emissions scenario aligned to the Paris Agreement.
- Over 1.8 million properties could be affected under the medium-emissions scenario RCP 4.5; current global emissions trajectories are closest to this intermediate scenario.
'Whilst we should be careful to note that these are projections, there are a number of ways planners, property owners and developers can help limit the potential effects of future subsidence-related issues, including taking specialist advice before starting major building work, avoiding planting trees with larger root systems close to properties, and ensuring the foundation designs of new constructions or extensions take into account the impact of climate change on shrinkable clays,' reflects Anna Harrison, applied Quaternary scientist at BGS.
