Switching gears?
Accelerating electric vehicle adoption.
On 17 April, British media reported an announcement by automotive marketplace Autotrader that the average price of new battery-electric cars had fallen below their petrol-powered competitors.
Yet despite this motoring milestone, the acceleration in electric vehicle (EV) purchases that some industry pundits have predicted has yet to translate into sales figures.
At the Westminster Energy, Environment & Transport Forum conference on ‘Next steps for zero-emission vehicles in the UK’, Ruth Cadbury MP, Chair of the House of Commons Transport Committee, pointed out that just over 20% of new car sales are now EVs.
The figures are on an upward trend, but this is still below the headline targets set out in the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate. The regulatory framework specifies that 80% of new cars sold by 2030 must be ZEVs (e.g. entirely battery electric or hydrogen), reaching 100% five years later. These targets are part of the government’s policy to achieve net-zero carbon emissions across the whole economy by 2050.
In December 2025, the Transport Committee launched a parliamentary inquiry into Supercharging the EV Transition, examining the issues putting the brakes on the switch to EVs. These include affordability, consumer confidence, and the roll-out and availability of charging infrastructure in different parts of the country. At the time of writing, the inquiry’s report is due to be released later this year.
Summarising the findings, Cadbury shared the need to boost investment in the second-hand EV market and scale-up charging infrastructure nationally; the potential of social leasing to improve affordability; and the importance of removing access barriers, reducing charge point costs, and allaying consumer fears around battery health.
With passenger vehicles constituting the largest EV market share, Professor Jillian Anable, Chair of Transport & Energy at the University of Leeds, UK, explained how the UK is moving up the adoption curve, but 'how we navigate this [hardest phase] will determine whether or not EVs are a success story'.
Getting more mileage
Anable expanded on the reasons why EV demand has fallen short of projections. Underestimating the lifespan of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars is one of them.
'We have seen conclusive evidence over the last decade that [these] cars are lasting longer on the roads and they’re being used more in later life,' she said.
She also referenced her colleague Professor Greg Marsden’s report – Overshoot: An Analysis of Progress, Risks and Opportunities for Decarbonising Surface Transport. Anable shared how the UK Department for Transport’s (DfT) current carbon trajectory 'overshoots the Climate Change Committee’s [seventh] Carbon Budget by around 15%', and that’s if the ZEV Mandate is fully achieved. 'We’re no longer talking about meeting carbon budgets,' she stressed…[but] 'how much we can minimise the overshoot'.
The headline for the Westminster event, she continued, was that 'a 10% decrease in the sales of EVs over the next few years, or against the [carbon emissions reduction] targets by 2035, will double the overshoot'.
David Bailey, Professor of International Business Strategy and Economics at the University of Birmingham, UK, implied that the way the ZEV Mandate has been set up means its target can’t be met. 'I’d argue that shifting the effective phase-out of new ICE vehicles from 2030 to 2035 wouldn’t represent retreat – it would represent policy realism…It’s breathing space.'
On the plus side, the legislation has signalled to manufacturers that the future is electric, and this is reflected in a shift in production plans, supply chain reorientation and growth in electric products.
'No other major car-producing nation has a target date for banning petrol and diesel cars by 2030,' Bailey asserted.
But supply is only part of the picture. Bailey advised ministers to spend the next five years fixing the infrastructure, maturing the market and building consumer confidence. Do that and the EV transition will stick.
Steering mass adoption
The calls for a gear shift towards greater affordability resonated with several speakers, including Anna Krajinska, UK Director for think tank Transport & Environment (T&E UK). She credited the ZEV Mandate for driving down EV costs to the point where she anticipated 19 different models on the UK market by 2027, priced at £23,000 or less. This is 'a staggering difference compared to where we were just three or four years ago'.
That said, she argued regulation can’t drive the transition entirely. She cited the EU’s Automotive Action Plan, with its policies to support the automotive sector’s transition to electric. She also pointed to the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act, which financially rewards manufacturers that produce EVs domestically.
With Chinese manufacturers competing heavily in the plug-in hybrid and hybrid models, she said the only way to compete long-term is to transition to electric at pace, adding that maintaining public buy-in is critical. The Electric Car Grant (ECG) should be targeted more effectively, Krajinska asserted.
'At the moment, the policy is helping those who are already looking to buy an EV, but there are a lot of people on low incomes that are dependent on cars for work,' she explained. She also believes a social leasing scheme could drive affordability, citing T&E UK analysis that such an initiative could run for just £77 a month.
The idea of a fair and just transition to EV gained currency with other presenters. Marc Palmer, Head of Strategy & Insights at Autotrader, said electric adoption has been 'a new car story driven largely by the wealthy, or those able to access salary sacrifice schemes'. However, 'mass adoption decarbonisation happens
on the used forecourt', referencing Cadbury’s comment that four-out-of-five UK car sales are in the second-hand market.
Palmer pointed to Autotrader’s research, which reveals how 6-in-10 buyers from households earning up to £40,000 a year purchase used cars that are less than £10,000. And yet, only 5% of these are EVs, compared to 35% of second-hand ICE cars.
Echoing Bailey’s observation that EV demand is fragile, Palmer explained why the new EV car market relies on a healthy used market, revealing how 9-in-10 new cars are bought on a finance agreement underpinned by the car’s future value in the used market.
He also advised shifting the ECG from wealthy to lower-income households who want to buy used EVs, '20% [of whom] tell us that they’re ready to go electric, but literally can’t afford the entry fee', he said. 'Supporting them will accelerate used EV sales and, in turn, support the new car market.'
Andy Poole, Head of Environment at the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), shared that of the two million cars it registers, almost a quarter are battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). With 160 BEV models on the market and 60 new additions expected next year, buyers could soon purchase models in every segment and at every price point.
Reflecting on why demand has not matched growth predictions, he referenced the trade body’s report, Same Destination, Smarter Route. The publication explores the ZEV Mandate’s assumptions that BEV-ICE price parity would occur by 2025. However, a 17% price differential remains, he clarified, attributing this to the high cost of batteries and soaring energy prices.
Brakes on?
A number of speakers concurred with evidence given to the Transport Committee inquiry, which described the EV transition policy as being akin to having one foot on the accelerator and another on the brakes.
Daniel Kaufman, Partner at legal firm CMS, cited the example of infrastructure grants being introduced and then being watered down or withdrawn entirely. Or promoting the ZEV Mandate to encourage take-up and then announcing a mileage-based tax for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from
1 April 2028.
Thomas McLennan, Director for Policy and Public Affairs at the British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association, said the sector is hugely concerned about the tax. 'It’s not just the right tax at the wrong time, it’s the wrong tax at the wrong time,' he warned, disclosing that its members anticipate a £260mln a year administration fee to deliver the Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED).
McLennan cautioned that eVED could lead to 'mileage fraud' and penalise rural drivers who typically make longer journeys. 'Unlike fuel duty, which you can mitigate through… having a more efficient car…you will always be penalised if you’re a higher mileage user.'
Palmer quoted Autotrader research, which found that 47% of consumers who are considering an EV purchase are put off by the eVED announcement. 'You’ve got one department [DfT] showing a green light and another writing a tax bill, and that is confusing the buyer.'
Another concern is public perceptions around battery health. Palmer again pointed to its consumer survey that revealed 64% of potential purchasers are concerned about battery degradation. He had spoken to counterparts in Norway and other markets where EV penetration is high and there is no evidence to suggest this is an issue. 'Data does exist within the manufacturers and organisations who are testing battery health,' he added.
'What we’d like to see is...a standardised testing methodology [with] standardised metrics, so that users…can make an informed choice and the market can begin to regulate itself…and, where batteries are not meeting the necessary standards, manufacturers can be held to account.'
Fuelled up
On the topic of financial packages to boost UK manufacturing, Rik Adams, Innovation Delivery Director at the Advanced Propulsion Centre (APC), discussed the challenges around accelerating EV production.
The APC is co-administrator of grants from the government’s £4bln programme for Driving Research & Investment in Vehicle Electrification, along with Innovate UK.
Adams explained how APC offers up to £20mln in grant funding per project over a two-to-three-year period so manufacturers can build pilot or demonstration plants. This targeted financing buys them time to raise the remaining capital required to build a manufacturing plant. To date, APC has five projects lined up.
'We’ve introduced an innovative new set of funding to support automotive manufacturing businesses to get over what we call the ‘valley of death’, because the businesses in question don’t necessarily have the customers on their order books to back it up (yet)'.
Two related topics that invited considerable debate centred on rolling out charging infrastructure at scale and operator charging costs.
The DfT’s 2022 publication, Taking Charge: The Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy, estimated that around 300,000 charge points are needed by 2030. The government allocated £450mln through the Local Electric Vehicle Infrastructure fund to help English local authorities install public charging networks, with much of it directed at residential on-street charging points.
It also put forward a £950mln Rapid Charging Fund for rapid and ultra-rapid charge points on the strategic road network, a policy then scrapped last year with £400mln redistributed to new charging infrastructure plans.
Several speakers criticised the two-tier charging system that disproportionately penalises low-income households. Bailey said he can charge his car in his driveway overnight on a domestic tariff for around 7p/kWh and only pay 5% VAT. On the other hand, there isn’t a single EV in a nearby street, which only has on-street parking and no charge points. Households on that street would have to pay 40-60p/kWh and 20% VAT if there were.
Bailey described the UK’s charging infrastructure as having 'all the right charging points but not necessarily in the right places' – a comment that picked up on an earlier point made by Cadbury. She cited 2024 National Audit Office data that revealed that 44% of all public charge points are located in London and the Southeast and only 15% in rural areas.
'Charging for households without private parking needs to be scaled at very rapid pace, backed by consistent national frameworks rather than a postcode lottery and dependent on how well organised local councils are,' he concluded.
Jonathan James, EV Project Manager at Surrey County Council, shared how private-sector funding has covered almost 100% of its on-street charge point installations to date. In his experience, the main stumbling block to large-scale roll-out is that most drivers still have ICE cars and are not interested in sacrificing their on-street parking so charge points can be installed.
Cadbury also revealed how difficult it was legally and logistically to retrofit charge points. She cited France’s right-to-charge legislation, which stops freehold building owners from preventing charge point installations.
On the other hand, Jarrod Birch, Head of Policy and Public Affairs at ChargeUK, said roll-out was going better than perceptions might suggest. Its report, Powering a Decade of Growth: the Economic Impact of UK EV Charging, forecasts this sector can contribute £15.5bln to the UK economy by 2035, but warns this requires a stable ZEV Mandate. A weakening in EV sales quotas risks halving charge-point operator investment over the next five years.
Any action to reduce public EV charging costs, such as VAT equalisation with home charging and relief from fixed energy costs is welcome, the report adds. This could generate an additional £5.7bln investment between now and 2030.
The stumbling blocks are cost and uncertainty. ChargeUK says public charging costs have rocketed almost 500% since 2021, driven by the fixed network costs for being connected to the grid.
To illustrate the gap between public perceptions and reality, Birch introduced Lloyds Bank’s Plugging into the Future report. It asked consumers how long it took to charge an EV at an ultra-rapid charger. The consensus was an hour, whereas, in fact, it’s about 30 minutes for an 80% charge and getting quicker.
'There’s one [question] I wish Lloyds had asked,' Birch reflected. '[What’s] the difference between the number of fuel pumps and the number of public EV chargers? We have about 61,000 fuel pumps and nearly 120,000 public chargers, which is almost twice as many and has grown significantly over the last three years.'
Heavy goods
The final session explored one of the toughest nuts to crack on decarbonisation – the heavy goods vehicle (HGV) sector, which is the subject of a recent government consultation.
Chris Rowland, Managing Director at MDS Transmodal, presented the company’s model of the number of hubs and charge points needed in the HGV market if every vehicle is electrified, as well as where best to locate them and the grid requirements.
Its simulation splits HGVs into daytime operations that can charge overnight at depots, as well as 24-hour operations that need public charging hubs on the strategic road network, major ports and large distribution parks.
Rowland explained how battery size was critical so that the heaviest HGVs could operate for at least 4.5 hours – legally, when the driver must stop for a 45-minute break.
To illustrate the electricity demand on the grid, he said the network would need to provide 6.9GW of capacity, almost twice the electricity produced by the Drax biomass power plant – the UK’s largest power station.
One solution that alleviates grid pressures is smart charging. Harry Scammell, Principal Consultant and Sustainable Transport Modelling Lead at Ricardo, explained how this could work. 'Smart charging can be used to reduce that peak demand by shifting when your charge is being delivered to a different time of the day, when there may be less demand on the grid [and] maybe electricity is cheaper.'
Scammell presented findings that cost savings were the biggest driver for smart charging adoption while operational risk was the main barrier. He said HGV operators were reluctant to modify their behaviours due to the intensity of some operations and varied usage patterns – so smart charging needed to reflect these considerations. Operators with 20 to 250 HGVs showed the 'greatest appetite' for the smart charging adoption, he revealed.
Modelling different uptake scenarios, he said electric HGVs could consume 160GWh of electricity per day by 2050, but smart charging could reduce this peak demand on the National Grid by 17%, or about 2GW of peak power demand.
Making moves
The current government policy is for all new HGVs in the UK to be zero-emission by 2040. At the time of writing, a public consultation on the effectiveness of the ZEV Mandate is open. How that encapsulates the debate, concerns and opportunities raised by the speakers, remains to be seen.
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