Back to the future - BP's fourth Outlook report highlights

Materials World magazine
7 May 2014

Rhiannon Garth Jones picks out the most important facts and figures from BP’s fourth Outlook report.

Outlook 2035, BP’s annual report, estimates that global energy demand will continue to grow, but that even the increasing consumption by emerging economies won’t stop it slowing overall. The American shale gas revolution comes in for particular attention, as the US gets increasingly close to energy self-sufficiency. Mark Finley, BP General Manager for global energy markets and US economics calls the progress made over the past two years ‘staggering’.

However, the main focus is on non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), countries. Global energy consumption is predicted to rise 41% by 2035, compared with 55% over the past 23 years and 30% over the past decade, and 95% of overall growth will come from emerging economies, with China and India accounting for more than half of the increase. Some key turning points are identified in the report, with renewable energy no longer a minor player and India looking likely to surpass China as the largest source of energy demand growth.

0.8% average oil growth per year 100% – net demand to come from outside the OECD, almost entirely from China, India and the Middle East

1.9% average growth in net demand for gas per year - 78% from non-OECD countries 22% from OECD countries

1.1% average growth in coal, per year - 87% of net growth to come from China and India, whose global share of coal consumption will rise from 58% to 64%

46% growth in global energy demand to be met by shale gas, and 21% of world supplies North America will account for 71% of world production

6.4% average increase per year in market share of renewables, with their share of global electricity to increase from 5% to 14% - 45% of renewable energy to come from non-OECD countries

1.9% rise in nuclear energy output per year - 96% of the global growth will be accounted for by China, India and Russia

29% Global rise in CO2 emissions, all from emerging economies